TheScooterScoop » Peak Oil

R.I.P. GM Hummer 1992 – 2010

Steve Guzman — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 05:33:49 +0000

(photo source)
So, the end has finally come for the old Hummer. Yes, THAT Hummer. WHAT HAPPENED?! Where did it all go wrong?! We used to LOVE the Hummer. HECK! Back in 2002 tax payers and oil exporting countries used to SUBSIDIZE the Hummer through a government issued $100,000 tax credit (later reduced to $25,000), yet today GM announces that they are shutting it down all together. No “making a smaller car”, no “selling the brand to China”; just wiping their hands and walking away.

Isn’t that sad? I feel a bit like Jon Stewart back on 1/20/09. But, I actually will miss the brand a bit. Now we’ll never hear any more talk of the Hummer bicycle, scooter, eyewear, heck think of how awesome the the Hummer O2 would have been. The dream is now over. Look out FJ Cruiser, you’re next!

(Dang, I should got a Ruckus)

GasBuddy Blog – Gasoline prices soar compared to last Thanksgiving

Steve Guzman — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:50:00 +0000

Right now, according to GasBuddy, the national gas price average is about $2.63 per gallon. Not, bad. Not GREAT, but better than most of Europe where prices average around $7 a gallon (OUCH!). GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan doesn’t expect prices to go down this winter. Here’s a small clip from his recent blog post:

What a year it has been. Since seeing gasoline prices collapse last fall, prices have risen some to nearly 41% higher than they were a year ago, and I have to say, the economy isn’t looking much healthier, so what happens now?

Looking at data, I believe that between Thanksgiving and Christmas, prices are likely to rise. The state of the economy here is improving, albeit slowly, and that means that our appetite for motor fuels will increase. While I don’t foresee any shocks at the pump between now and Christmas, I do think we’ll see fluctuating prices, but we will see prices slowly move higher.

We’re also seeing an increase in geopolitical tensions as Iran began war games this week, pushing up concern about a rash move from the oil producing country. Also helping boost prices is the perception that with additional refineries closing, capacity will drop, adding more risk into the market if demand moves up in the coming months.

So, what does that mean? I hope it doesn’t mean we revisit the $3.00/gal prices of 2007, like we had the winter before the price explosion of 2008.

Where are gas prices headed?

Steve Guzman — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:58:00 +0000

(Click to enlarge)

Here you see a chart of Average Retail Gas Prices over the last 72 months. The red hands are pointing to gas prices for December 30th over the last 6 years. It’s already gone up $1.08 US per gallon since January of this year. My unscientific guess is that we pass the $3.00 per gallon mark in July 2010. I’m not hoping here, I’m projecting. What do you think?

A BIG “Thank You!” to GasBuddy for the data!

Oh and if you are the sadistic type, you might enjoy this graph of the US Trade Deficit. OH 1991! What HAPPENED!? Where did we go wrong?! What does the future hold?

Peak oil – Optimist vs. Pessimist

Steve Guzman — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 19:51:00 +0000

(Wha? Wait! No, I said “PEAK” oil, not “PEEK”. Oh well… Ladies and gentleman, Kim Peek.)

When I saw the name of the blog, I didn’t understand the connection. Why would a blog called PeakOilDebunked be talking about scooters? I was expecting to see a lecture on how scooter riders where a bunch of crybaby hippies who were too scared to ride around in a man-vehicle.

Luckily for me PeakOilDebunked is more about dispelling the myth that when oil goes, society goes too. Click on the above link to read a nice little story where JD offers his opinion on what changes to expect with the death of our favorite fossil fuel.

Does that mean we’ll be hauling stuff around like they do in Japan?

Maybe… but I bet it’ll be somewhere in between that and what we have now. Thanks to Ilya for the scoop!

NPR – Gas Prices Down, SUV Sales Up

Steve Guzman — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 03:27:00 +0000

(And fast-food peddling clowns are back in fashion! Make mine SUPERSIZED!)

Say it ain’t so! I havn’t had a chance to actually listen to this report… and I’ve just finished eating, so I’m gonna wait until tomorrow to see what NPR has to say about this. Here’s the teaser:

SUV sales seemed doomed by high gas prices. But as prices at the pump drop, customers are returning to the big vehicles that — just a few months ago — they wouldn’t look at.

And now that American car companies have taken their focus off of big SUVs, VW can finally show that card they had up their sleeve!

The 2009 Volks Wagon Monolith!!!!! (the exclaimation points are part of the name)

and their tag line is “That vich does not kill you vill only make you more bad-ass!”

The shortsigted consumer: Gas high? Buy scooter. Gas Low? Sell scooter, buy SUV – Repeat ad nauseam

Steve Guzman — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 19:32:00 +0000

(caution… rant in t-minus 4 seconds and counting)

Oh it pangs me so, this cycle of madness. What I had perceived as a paradigm shifting “perfect storm” (Ref) just seven months ago looks to be another example of American gas pains.

There are 22 new scooter listings in the Austin Craigslist this week alone.
“Brand new scooter – less than 200 miles on it. GREAT X-mas gift!”, is not uncommon.

Now, I’m not sure if people are really selling these things and buying SUVs (we’ve got other issues at work today… oil at a 5 year low, good for SUV sales, and a bad case of the “R” word, which is bad, spreading across the news wire), but it’s just sad that American consumers can be led around like a bull with a nose ring focused on buying whatever oil prices tell them to buy. Yeah, I know some people will have good excuses like “I’m scared”, “I broke my arm and can’t ride”, “I really need the money”, “I’m preggers”, but I thought the rest of you were in it for the long haul. Even if it was only for fair weather riding.

Even the professionals are suggesting that consumers not get too comfortable with the cheap gas:

Andrew Leach, an assistant professor of business at the University of Alberta, who specializes in energy economics, doesn’t think prices will sink much lower. “It’s getting pretty close to a floor in gas prices,” he said.

Mr. Leach expects prices to remain relatively low for the next year, with possible fluctuations due to the cost of refined oil.

He warned that consumers shouldn’t take low prices for granted and said that in any market where consumers need a product, they are at the mercy of the retailer. With the current low prices, he said now is the time to start thinking about public transport and smaller cars, so that when gas prices do rise again, people won’t be dependent on fuel they can’t afford.

While it is unAmerican to say you were happy that gas prices were so high, you have to admit it did fuel interest in alternatives. Is that so bad? Is it better to be reactive and only push for change when it’s too late or to be proactive and say, “Hey! You know what? I’m gonna keep using oil until we finally get this new alternative worked out in the next few years, then no more.”

Oil expected to rocket back over $100/barrel unless YOU keep down demand

Steve Guzman — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 09:41:00 +0000

(Here’s a good way to lower oil prices. Toss yer car in the recycle bin!)

A pair of recent Reuters stories mention a deferment in oil production cuts originally planned for this month but they are torn over how we might react to these cuts. Today oil has dropped to $49 a barrel down from $147 a barrel in July.

Here is the seeb zamini (Iranian for “meat and potatoes”?) of the story from Gulfnews.com:

Caught off-guard by a severe decline in energy consumption in the West, Opec is wary of being seen to panic after two previous rounds of cuts failed to shore up prices.

Ministers arriving for today’s meeting said they were likely to defer a decision on new cuts until they meet again in Algeria, when they can better judge if all members have met previous commitments.

“It’s a consultative meeting. We will prepare some more information and make a final decision maybe in Algeria,” said Iranian Oil Minister Ghulam Hussain Nozari.

Prior to the meeting Venezuela, Iran and Iraq were calling for more aggressive restraints but by yesterday only Iraq wanted an immediate cut.

“We support a production cut … we support a reduction now,” said Iraqi Oil Minister Shiite Hussein Ibrahim Saleh al-Shahristani.

UAE Energy Minister Mohammad Bin Dha’en Al Hamili said he believed the oil market was oversupplied, but declined to give any comment on whether Opec might agree to cut production.

Powerless so far to prop up prices, delegates say Opec is worried that another quick cut could undermine its credibility among traders focused on the spread of the financial crisis into the real economy and its impact on oil demand and inventories.

Look for the planned supply cut to be announced around the end of Janurary when Opec hopes to jack prices back up to “normal”.

Maybe if we keep demand down we’ll see Opec oil drop like US Crude did in1998 when it hit a rock bottom price of $10.35 a barrel! That would be GREAT, right? But really, who wants their economy to be built on the cornerstone of all that political unrest? It really is time to divorce oil… they’re already talking about divorcing the Dollar.

Oh and where did I get the “expected to rocket back over $100 a barrel”? A recent poll on GasBuddy shows that of the 20,000+ respondents, 51% expect oil to once again run amuck in the next 6-12 months and a combined 73% believe it will happen sometime in the next 6-24 months. Well, what do they know?! If you believe in the cognition of collective intelligence, then there might be some truth to their expectations.

A gas hike seems inevitable, especially if Americans continue to consume at our traditional levels. Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah seems pretty confident that we will step back into our old habits when he said

“In our industry sometimes we can be sick but will never die. We’ve seen it for the last 20 years, up and down, it’s normal in this business, it’s a cycle and we have to live with it. But we will come back as usual.” (Reuters)

If we continue our relationship with oil, we will prove him right.

(Do you want YOUR economy married to oil?)

Jobs for out of work scooters

Steve Guzman — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 19:42:00 +0000

If low gas prices have you back to driving your 4WD Dually to the office you should consider a career for your out of work scooter. Here’s an idea from ace2heart. It’s not real, mind you, but a concept called “Sweep-scooter” that he/she entered into the Worth1000 Dream Vehicles 5 contest.

Just thought it could give you some ideas to keep your poor, lonely scooter active and engaged during these times of $2/gal gas. Don’t worry Scooty! You’ll be back to work before you can say “carbon tax”.

Bush lifts oil drilling ban. Hummers happy, baby seals sad.

Steve Guzman — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:49:00 +0000

(w00t! Hummers are happy to be back out on the road! Flickr/Sam Felder)

In a brave last minute move to temporarily save us oil addicts from “the shakes” before he has to roll, G-Dub has lifted his Dad’s 1990 ban on offshore drilling. All he needs now is the US Congress to “get off their lazy asses and lift the Congressional ban on drilling” (paraphrased of course). “The Prez” went on to declare that “now Americans are paying at the pump”.

The only bad thing, according to White House officials, is that the drilling would “have no immediate impact on prices at the pump”. It would take years for production to start and who KNOWS what kind of effect it would have of the cute and fuzzy critters of Alaska.

Ahhhhh, it’s just so EASY to just stay with the program. Just drill and serve! But, I suppose if you’re into finding newer, better, cleaner energy sources (a lot of work if you ask me), then you could go through the trouble of clicking on the “Write Your Representative” site and sweat over your keyboard, writing a letter to your Congressperson. Ugh… who wants to do all THAT?

(Cute, fuzzy, baby seals are sad… Are there baby seals near the Outer Continental Shelf? I dunno. Maybe they’re sad because they can’t get 3G iPhone service out that way. Image Source)

America’s "pusher" trys to refuel our oil addiction

Steve Guzman — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:51:00 +0000

(Ah mister BUsh! What you think about phat gold chain I buy with all of oil profits? Nice, no? And this was only from profits I make between 9am and 9:02am this morning! Hehe!)

This from today’s CNNMoney report titled “Saudi summit aims at oil prices”:

The world’s largest oil producer, stepping out of its usual role as de facto leader of OPEC, will host representatives of big oil producing nations, consumer countries and companies.

The Saudis are widely believed to be concerned that escalating oil prices – crude hovered around $134 a barrel Thursday, nearly double what it cost a year ago – will cause a permanent drop in demand as consumers get more efficient…

To inject more oil into the market, Halff said the Saudis may use the meeting to arrange for special deals with refiners and others that could bring crude to market at below-market prices. The exact nature of the deals, he noted, will probably never be disclosed.

I’ll tell you the nature of the deals! The Pusher (that’s OPEC) knows the User (that’s America) is kicking the habit. What’s it gonna take to get us hooked again? $3.00/gal gas? Subsidized Ford Excursions? Ford would like that right now according to this CNNMoney report.

What do YOU think about all this? ME? I say GOOD! America you’re doing a FINE job. Get in your microcars, your hybrids, your scooters, mopeds and bicycles! Today YOUR efficiency allows YOU have the power to control this issue. Doesn’t it feel good to have power for a change?
Thanks to Danny Hooligan for this scoop!