Robert Pretcher predicted a deflated oil market back in 2009 which was covered by Business Insider (via Bloomberg).  In the story, Pretcher says:

Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel based on a technical analysis called Elliott Wave principle, Prechter said in the Elliott Wave Theorist report last month. The forecast rests on a “supercycle” theory, which through a series of five waves from last century suggests a decline from last year’s peak.

…“The Elliott-Wave picture pretty much assures us that there will be no additional waves of advance to extend the ‘peak oil’ mania,” Prechter said in the report. “On the contrary, if five waves are complete from the early 1990s, oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel, which, needless to say, supports our deflationary outlook.”

Can you imagine?  From a peak of $147.50 the summer of 2008 down to below $10 today?  The last time oil was $10 a barrel was back in 1974 and gas was 50¢ a gallon!  (source)  But, current oil prices are about $75 a barrel, a long way from $10/Barrel.  The interesting part is that Oil SHOULD actually be around $10 a barrel today!  According to a recent story by CNBC, right now we’ve got more oil reserves than we’ve ever had in recorded history.  In the CNBC report,

The price of a barrel of oil would be closer to $10 if the commodity wasn’t traded as an investment instrument, given the record-high levels of U.S. oil inventories, Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, told CNBC Monday.

So, what can we predict for gas prices in the near future?  According to the Bloomberg story

“Commodities may have peaked last year and the next major top may be in the late 2030s, Prechter said in the report, citing wave and cycle analyst Harry Dent, who showed a 29-year cycle in commodities, with past peaks in 1920, 1951, 1980 and 2008.”

Ok, so what does this all mean?  Because it is an investment instrument, oil will continue to trade at over $70 a barrel and when we see solid economic growth in the next five years and begin to increase our demand for oil / gas, the price of a barrel will spring back to life to what Chatham House predicts will be around $200 a barrel.  Why?  Bloomberg says:

Crude supply will be tight when demand rebounds because national and international companies haven’t spent enough on exploration and development, Professor Paul Stevens of the London-based research group said in an e-mailed statement.

And, with an expected peak around between 2030 and 2040, I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil spike to $300 a barrel!  I don’t want to be driving an oil powered vehicle when that hits… HELL!  I don’t think I want to be driving a oil powered vehicle when it hits $200 a barrel!  What would gas prices be?  $6+ a gallon?  That means an $80 fill up for the wife’s CRV and a $12 fill up for the scooter as soon as 2015?  That’s not a purdy picture.

Check this out!  A one-of-a-kind custom Vespa ET4 with a rear end that is inspired by a classic ‘59 Cadillac.  Hours to fabricate?  Over 100.  Cost to build?  Around $2000.  Puzzled looks from know-it-all Vespa heads trying to figure it out?  Priceless.  Thanks to TopSpeed for the scoop.  Check ‘em out for more photos.

I personally would have liked to see a re-worked front end to go with it… you know the 8 headlight configuration of that classic Caddy?

Register NOW for a chance to win a HAWT little Vespa 90.  No, seriously!  The only way to get a raffle ticket is by registering and you’ve got 5 days left to be a part of the TWO-TICKET registration… September 1st and you’re down to ONE ticket.  On site registration?  S.O.L.

The Riff Raff Scooter Club believes in not-for-profit scooter rallies for all scooterists. No matter what type of scooter you have, all are invited to attend. Every penny that is collected through registration is put towards planning a bad-ass rally.

Registration is $40 per person, which includes your rally t-shirt, patch, swag bag, bike raffle tickets and your raffle badge. Early registration is highly encouraged to guarantee your t-shirt size and your bike raffle tickets.

For the latest updates, become a fan of For A Few Scooters more on Facebook. Questions or concerns? Email contact@forafewscootersmore.com

(A glancing kiss to the bumper and a big, fat “MUWAH!” to the cameraman)

Jason John dug this educational piece up to share with us as a lesson in scooter safety… ok, he probably did it to make us pee our pants, but there is an important lesson to be learned here.  That lesson is – No matter how much fun you’re having on your vacation, a two wheeled vehicle will not hesitate to serve you up a shot of BuzzKill.  Why?  Well from a scientific standpoint, this follows the “Look Ma No Hands” theorem of quantum fluid mechanics… you all know how that works.  Basically the ounces of BuzzKill served up are determined by the ratio of CFJ (carefree joy) to RTE (road time experience).  A careful and alert road dog would not be the star of this video.  But, the joyful, unprotected, scampering scooter-nymph in this photo is about to be served up a Big Gulp ™ full of icy-cold BuzzKill.  Poor scooter-nymph.  A post-impact study of her pants will illustrate the brownian motion of quantum particles as described by the O’Shiet—Daym model of a Sumbiach system as studied in quantum fluid dynamics.

(It’s the angular velocity that determines the brownian mass particle discharge)

(matching shoes not included)

I don’t believe these are in production any more, but back in 2006 you could still buy them.  Scootish Scottish motorcycle manufacturer, EcoRider, produced their version of the Rokon called the Hippo, but instead of two wheel drive this bike had a diesel engine.  The 230cc diesel bike would cost you about $4000 if it were still around and available in the USA.

Here’s a bit more background on this short lived, but cool, oddity… and a video:

Thanks for the scoop, Tim!

During my dreadful pondering and languid contemplation of exactly how to address the current state of the scooter industry; longtime scooter industry guru, father and creative-type who would likely drink free at Comic-Com for being confused with a famous cartoon creator, Bryan Bedell, laid it down on his site 2StrokeBuzz.

I read his piece and I have to say right now things in the scooter biz are as bad as Bryan makes them sound… maybe worse.  Yes, I admit that I’m known for being overly optimistic (foolish?) at times, in the hopes that I can influence the world by sheer will and positive thinking, but the reality of the situation right now is grim and the future of the scooter market in the USA lies in the hands of the distributors and shops that can manage to stay afloat on a shoestring budget for the next couple of years.

Imagine you owned a distributorship, let’s call it Gensymko.  You’re proud of the high quality products you import from overseas.  You’ve invested millions of dollars in scooters, parts, warehousing, employees and all the requirements that go along with that.  You do your best to keep your customers (the Dealerships) happy and hope that support reflects on their customers (scooter consumers).  A happy scooter consumer comes back for parts, accessories, gear and service.  You count on your sales people to grow your dealer base, you count on your dealers to market and promote their shops and you also count on them to do their best to project their sales for the year.  Why?  So they can place advance orders with you and you’ll know what to order from your manufacturer so that you aren’t stuck with a warehouse full of aging scooters.  And, what’s the fuel that keeps this cycle moving?  Financing.  Consumers need it to buy stuff, Dealers need to to stock their showroom floors, and distributors, like you, need it to stock their warehouse.  The way this “fuel” keeps things moving on the business side is through the power of interest or “juice”.  Your dealer is “inspired” to move scooters because every month a financed (floored) scooter sits in the store the amount of money they make on that scooter is diminished until at some point, the dealer is upside down; paying juice on a scooter that is taking up space and depleting their income.  If your dealer isn’t selling, then they end up backing out on the advance orders they placed with you and your warehouse is stacked to the rafters with dusty crates.  The thing is, you NEED those things to be gone before August if you want to get in your 2011 models.

Imagine now, the perfect storm of rotten luck for your company Gensymko.
*  Sky-high gas prices make 2008 a stellar year for scooters.  Consumers don’t know what they want and don’t care.  They just want to buy something that gives them 100 MPG, end of story.  If you nailed a couple of wheels to a weedwacker, they’d buy it.  You move so many scooters through your warehouse that you end up begging your manufacturer to send more container loads ASAP before the season ends.

*  A dealer frenzy begins.  Optimistic dealers take note of their success and begin placing large pre-orders for 2009.

*  Smelling the “blood” in the water, new and inexperienced dealerships spring up from everywhere.  Your two dealership town now has six.  Competition is getting fierce.  Dealers are grabbing up every brand they can get and scooter consumers are taking them home as soon as they hit the floor.  Dealers are actually collecting deposits on expected shipments!

*  Your backup containers finally come in just as the 2008 season is cooling and you quickly whisk them off to your dealers who are happy about their sales for the summer, but feeling a bit pensive as gas prices begin to slide and our Titanic economy heads straight for the iceberg of shady financial trading.

*  2009 spins up and you’ve got your 2009 models in the warehouse or on the water.  Dealers are fully stocked.  The “juice” clock is ticking and your sales people are having a tough time selling to your existing dealer base.  Fortunately for you, there are still some late coming opportunists sprouting up dealerships, but they are entering the game with caution because they are new and they want to see this “scooter frenzy” in action before they really jump in.

* CRASH! The economy is going down and taking all of your customers with it.  Gas prices are almost half what they were the previous summer.  The frenzied scooter consumer of 2008 is already posting their purchase on craigslist, low miles and cheap.  Very few people are visiting their local dealerships because gas isn’t as scary any more.  There are those who are pissed off at the shocker that oil prices gave them last year, but the banks won’t lend them money to buy a scooter.  What do they do?  Lowball the multitudes of craigslist sellers.         The dealers?  Are scared.

* The new dealers with the flimsy, clone scooters are packing up and going home.  They got ‘em for cheap, marked them up 300% found out why they were so cheap and backed out.  Their leftovers are hitting the auction block by the hundreds and now your well established dealers are having a hard time selling your quality Gensymco’s.  In this economy it’s hard to compete with craigslist and these dirt-cheap auction scooters.  The consumer who was once interested in a scooter is buying some of these ’cause they’re as cheap as your dealer’s freight and prep charge!

*  Early summer 2010 nearly half of your well established, seasoned dealerships can’t take the strain any more.  They’ve got 2009’s and 2010’s on their floors and the juice is killin’ em.  Your warehouse is fully stocked with 2009’s and 2010’s.  Sales are almost non-existent and August is approaching quickly.

*  Your competitors in the distribution game are changing up their strategy in strange and desperate ways… selling directly to consumers, auctioning off all their 2009’s or pulling out of the game completely, leaving their dealers high and dry, dumping all their scooters onto the auction block and offering up their parts to MRP.

*  NOW comes the hard part… When your dealers go down they have to ditch their product and you know who has to buy it back?  You… at full price.  Remember those late shipments in late 2008?  Remember how your dealer’s floor was completely stocked for the anticipated, blockbuster 2009?  Yeah, well you’re gonna need to find some space in your full warehouse because you’re about to get a $#!+load of 2008’s and 2009’s to go with your 2010’s JUST IN TIME for your 2011’s to start arriving.

*  Sound bad yet?  Well, Gensymco… consider yourself lucky.  Some other distributors have it even worse as they battle with a suspicious EPA who have come to the game a bit late.  Don’t they know those dirty, cheap scooter companies have already flown the coop?  It doesn’t matter.  Dry dock fees are expensive and adding up daily as these “inspectors” do their best to insure their job security during these tough times.

So, what’s my advice?  Well, if you’re a dealer, you’ll need to keep your belt tight for a bit longer.  Let this flood of auction bikes wash over the consumers, support your loyal customers and pray that the Rich Oil Barons (the people who run this place) crank up the price of oil.  If you’re a scooterist, be there for your local shops… get a service done, buy a toy scooter for your office desk and a copy of Scoot!  Pick up some winter gear.  If you’re a distributor who is not funded by publicly traded stock and is still in business, hang in there brother.  You know how to best steer your ship.  Maybe consider doing what Honda did in with the Ruckus for 2010… they didn’t make a 2010 Ruckus, they just sold carry over 2009’s.  In Japan, model year doesn’t mean anything… there’s not a reason for it to mean anything here in America other than to encourage people to upgrade to the latest model.

If you’ve got some ideas you’d like to share, now would be a good time to do it.  We’re all listening.

Hundreds of motorcyclists gathered Friday night at Monument Circle at the city’s center to show support for the victims and to protest the dismissal of the drunken driving charges.  Bisard, if convicted, could face up to 20 years in prison.  A survey on THIS page says 32% of those polled agree with how the city is handling this case.  How do you feel about what’s going down in Indianapolis?